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TCU Basketball RPI


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#1 Road Trip Frog

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 09:24 AM

To put things in perspective, look at our basketball RPI over the last 4 years.

2008/9 - 175
2009/10 - 194
2010/11 - 210

2011/12 (currently) - 84

There may be some RPI haters out there, but no one can argue with the amazing turn around that Jim Christian and his staff did this year. To quote any winter olympic bobsled announcer, "TCU has stopped the bleeding"





#2 steelfrog

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 09:27 AM

That is AWESOME!

Need to keep building on it but Christian is certainly going in the right direction!
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#3 TCU2002

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 09:46 AM

To put things in perspective, look at our basketball RPI over the last 4 years.

2008/9 - 175
2009/10 - 194
2010/11 - 210

2011/12 (currently) - 84

There may be some RPI haters out there, but no one can argue with the amazing turn around that Jim Christian and his staff did this year. To quote any winter olympic bobsled announcer, "TCU has stopped the bleeding"


Assuming 330 Division 1 basketball schools, we're in the Top 25%. What a huge improvement.
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#4 DentalFrog

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 09:52 AM

I really like Christian as a coach. Hopefully he can start pulling in some local studs and let this thing snowball.

#5 angelo's frog

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 09:59 AM

I don't think that there is any doubt that this is the best team we've had since the NIT team. I just hope we build on it next year because we all know what happened in the years after that NIT run . . .

#6 cdsfrog

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 10:47 AM

To put things in perspective, look at our basketball RPI over the last 4 years.

2008/9 - 175
2009/10 - 194
2010/11 - 210

2011/12 (currently) - 84

There may be some RPI haters out there, but no one can argue with the amazing turn around that Jim Christian and his staff did this year. To quote any winter olympic bobsled announcer, "TCU has stopped the bleeding"


It also shows why some are still skeptical. He did worse every year until now. Same horrid losses this year but we have had 4 amazing wins vs zero last year. That's the big difference. If you beat USC/Boise/SMU our RPI would in the 40s. Look at CSU, 27th with almost the same record and less notable wins. However, they don't have 3 horrid losses.



Where did you get 84? Real time rpi shows as 90, espn shows 91 and yahoo shows 91.

#7 KillerFrog InD KitchenSink

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 11:01 AM

Interesting thing is that Pomeroy's efficiency ratings doesn't see a huge difference between any of our recent squads:

2011-12 131
2010-11 173
2009-10 182
2008-09 124

Difference is that last year we were one of the most "unlucky" teams with 324 rank in luck and this year we are one of the "luckiest" teams with a 14 rank.

Pomeroy's definition of luck:

Luck is the deviation in winning percentage between a teamís actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method.



We were very unlucky last year- i.e. should have had a much better record based on the offensive and defensive efficiencies, while this year Pomeroy thinks we should have a significantly worse record.

It should be noted, however, that our Pomeroy ratings have been moving up significantly the last several games, so maybe we are catching up with our "luck".

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#8 steelfrog

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 11:04 AM

Luck is for suckers.

That is an example of what is disciussed int he book "How to Lie With Statistics".

I have a masters in statistics (economics) so don't F with me on this...
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#9 cdsfrog

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 11:20 AM

Interesting thing is that Pomeroy's efficiency ratings doesn't see a huge difference between any of our recent squads:

2011-12 131
2010-11 173
2009-10 182
2008-09 124

Difference is that last year we were one of the most "unlucky" teams with 324 rank in luck and this year we are one of the "luckiest" teams with a 14 rank.

Pomeroy's definition of luck:



We were very unlucky last year- i.e. should have had a much better record based on the offensive and defensive efficiencies, while this year Pomeroy thinks we should have a significantly worse record.

It should be noted, however, that our Pomeroy ratings have been moving up significantly the last several games, so maybe we are catching up with our "luck".


That rating is idiotic. CSU isn't the 27th best team nor are the 88th......

As for a worse record games that we clearly should have won: USC (one of the worst teams I have ever seen 6-23), SMU (12 points in 1 half.....), Boise, CSU overtime, and Tulsa. Worst case scenario we should have the same record if not 1 more win.

We lost by an average of more than 12 points last year. We weren't unlucky, we sucked.

#10 angelo's frog

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 11:22 AM

It would really suck if losses to SMU kept us out of a BCS bowl and the NCAA tournament in the same year.

#11 cdsfrog

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 11:23 AM

It would really suck if losses to SMU kept us out of a BCS bowl and the NCAA tournament in the same year.


Do you mean the NIT? We aren't out of that yet but were not even close to making the real tournament.

#12 froginaustin

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 11:29 AM

It wouldn't break my heart if the Frogs made one of the lesser (some might say b.s.) tournaments this year. That might give them a better chance of making it past the first round, and some decent tournament experience.
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#13 ftwfrog

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 11:36 AM

Do you mean the NIT? We aren't out of that yet but were not even close to making the real tournament.

We are 3 wins away. Beat CSU(or equivalent team) in the MWC tourney, then SDSU/New Mexico, then UNLV in LV.... and we're dancing!!

Sure, its a longshot, but there's a chance.
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#14 HubbyFrog

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 12:04 PM

There is definitely a chance to dance! I think if TCU wins these final two regular season games, there is a chance that they win the conference too!

#15 angelo's frog

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 12:16 PM

Do you mean the NIT? We aren't out of that yet but were not even close to making the real tournament.


If we win the last two regular season games and then win 2 conference tournament games, that's 21 wins and a team that probably came in second or third in the regular season in conference and second in the tournament. Beat SMU and you would've won 22 games in that scenario and I don't see how we wouldn't make the tourney. Now, that's a lot of hypotheticals with a a lot of games left but it's possible.

#16 westtexfrog

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 12:32 PM

It also shows why some are still skeptical. Same horrid losses this year but we have had 4 amazing wins vs zero (?) last year.


I'm not trying to take issue with you cdsfrog, but the victory over USC last year was more than a "quality" victory over a NCAA Tourney team. If you recall CJC "cleaned house" shorty after the USC game and the Frogs weren't competitive from that point forward. CJC took a lot of criticism over kicking those kids off the team, but it looks like he knew what he was doing.

#17 RSF

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 12:47 PM

If we win the last two regular season games and then win 2 conference tournament games, that's 21 wins and a team that probably came in second or third in the regular season in conference and second in the tournament. Beat SMU and you would've won 22 games in that scenario and I don't see how we wouldn't make the tourney. Now, that's a lot of hypotheticals with a a lot of games left but it's possible.



Still doesn't get us into the NCAA tournament. MWC gonna get 3 teams - and UNLV, UNM and SDSU are all already at 20+ wins with RPI's in the 30's (or better). Right now CSU is the team on the outside looking in. Team's on a roll right now, but the record's only 5-6 against top 100 teams, and the RPI is a killer. Winning the conference tournament is the only feasible way. And lots of 20+ win teams end up in the NIT (including New Mexico, among others, last year).


And the Austin College victory doesn't count as far as the tourney is concerend, so right now we sit at 16 wins.
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#18 baylorbearal

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 12:49 PM

I posted a few weeks ago that I could tell that TCU basketball was turning a corner. Good timing to do that for sure because the Big 12 is pretty salty as basketball. I think the interesting thing about basketball is your fortunes can turn on just a few players. My kid had small D1 offers but ended up playing D2 because the location was so great (beach in Florida). Because of that, we were around alot of kids who were big time D1 recruits. The big difference for TCU is you will now have your great locationn (nice area of Ft. Worth, bigger city environment) combined with playing in big conference for basketball. I think that combination will allow you to get some of the DFW and Houston kids who will really like that combination. DFW has turned about a ton of great kids lately.

#19 HubbyFrog

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 01:03 PM

Still doesn't get us into the NCAA tournament. MWC gonna get 3 teams - and UNLV, UNM and SDSU are all already at 20+ wins with RPI's in the 30's (or better). Right now CSU is the team on the outside looking in. Team's on a roll right now, but the record's only 5-6 against top 100 teams, and the RPI is a killer. Winning the conference tournament is the only feasible way. And lots of 20+ win teams end up in the NIT (including New Mexico, among others, last year).


And the Austin College victory doesn't count as far as the tourney is concerend, so right now we sit at 16 wins.


RSF--the Mountain West is ranked as the 5th best conference in college basketball this year. With Colorado State currently on the bubble, I think that if TCU can get 3-4 more wins then the MWC definitely has the opportunity to get 4 teams in.

While 'last 10 games' is no longer a criteria that the selection committee uses, they will undoubtedly have taken notice of TCU's recent run. The Frogs would have won 6 of 7 or 7 of 8 to end the season in that case.

Of course, everything starts tonight by beating Wyoming on the road.

#20 angelo's frog

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 01:06 PM

Of course, everything starts tonight by beating Wyoming on the road.


Yeah, let's not get ahead of ourselves. However, if we could even squeak into the NIT and get a home game, I would be ecstatic.


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